Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen has been hitting historic lows against the US Dollar over the last few months.  White the trend remains down, there are some signs of at least a short-term bottom forming and it may be an opportunity to either lighten up a short position or establish a modest long position with some caution.

“June Crude Oil is on the verge of breaking a neckline on an inverse head and shoulders pattern – If for holds, a close above $111.40 looks like a rally toward new highs near $125”

“June Crude Oil is on the verge of breaking a neckline on an inverse head and shoulders pattern –
If for holds, a close above $111.40 looks like a rally toward new highs near $125″

Bitcoin rallied from around $4,000 in March of 2020 to over $65,000 in late 2021 due to the massive money printing required due to the pandemic crisis.

 

People are confused as to why Bitcoin would decline as it is supposed to be a hedge against inflation. In fact, Bitcoin is a hedge against monetary debasement, which leads to inflation. Bitcoin rallied from around $4,000 in March of 2020 to over $65,000 in late 2021 due to the massive money printing required due to the pandemic crisis. Now that we are battling the effects of that inflation, it is natural that Bitcoin would actually decline and I would not be completely surprised to see it back below $20,000 in the near future.
It’s rise and fall does not invalidate it – it just needs to be understood better.

As we looked at the other day, $BTC was sitting on a long term uptrend line.

As we looked at the other day, $BTC was sitting on a long term uptrend line.  This has been decisively broken, and we look now to test the most recent lows just below $29,000.  If that does not hold, I think we will see a re-test of $20,000.

$BTC sitting at the bottom of a massive long term trend channel.

$BTC sitting at the bottom of a massive long term trend channel. This can be a low-risk entry for bulls, but I fear that we have been testing this bottom trendline too many times.  Combined with what is happening with interest rates and other risk markets, I think we will break this line and test low $30,000’s before stabilizing.  For long-term bulls, that may not be significant – either way, we are at a key point in time and price  – well worth paying attention to.

There is a very significant Head and Shoulders pattern forming in the $SPY.

There is a very significant Head and Shoulders pattern forming in the $SPY.
The neckline is essentially $430 – if we rally above $430, we can see $455 – $460.
If we fail, likely we continue back down to the lower end of the recent range.

$BTC is within a very nice long-term channel with support around $35,000 – $36,000.

$BTC is within a very nice long-term channel with support around $35,000 – $36,000.  If we hold, it will be a great time to initiate or add to longs.  If we break, we likely will work our way down to mid 20,000’s where we will have a great long -term entry.

$OIL has been consolidating after its huge rally over the last few months.

$OIL has been consolidating after its huge rally over the last few months.  There is most likely a breakout of this narrowing range coming, and if history holds true it should be to the upside.

If you are inclined to look for a bounceback in stocks, $GOOGL showing nice signs of a bottom – at least for now.

$AMZN Traders Lens

I never like catching a falling knife, but we are getting very close to some serious long term support on $AMZN at around 2880.  My way to play this is to sell Jan 28 2880 puts for now – and if the support holds, I would look to buy some shares outright.

$TLT ETF Trendline.

$TLT, which is the 20-year Treasury ETF, is sitting on a long-term trendline.  With it a virtual certainty the Fed plans to raise rates, and with all indications the economy is growing strongly and inflation is a real issue, I would be surprised if this trendline held.

$BTC

I am going out on a limb here to say that I think the correction in $BTC which we called for a few weeks ago may have run its course.  I am looking to re-establish a full long position here.